Honest expectation card before every portfolio backtest

A short framing card now appears between "you submitted a portfolio query" and "here are the backtest results". It tells you what to realistically expect from the kind of strategy you described — what range of CAGR is plausible for that asset class and risk level, what drawdowns are typical, what the historical hit rate looks like for similar systems.

The point is anchoring. If you ask for "a low-risk income strategy" and the backtest comes back at 28% CAGR with a 4% max drawdown, the right reaction is suspicion, not celebration. The expectation card primes that suspicion by showing you the realistic range first, so an unrealistic result reads as a warning sign rather than a win.

For high-CAGR queries (above ~25%) the card is more direct: it explicitly names the trade-off — strategies in that range historically pay for it with deep drawdowns, high turnover, or fragile regime dependence. You can still run the backtest. You just see the catch first.