Where markets stand today, measured against their own history
A map of what moved, and a set of indicators of where the market cycle sits: each with today's reading, how it ranks against its own history and against prior market peaks, and what SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500, did in the 12 months after similar readings. Every figure is computed from stored data and shows its formula, source and date. It is a gauge, not a forecast.
Each tile is one share or fund, coloured by its price change. US stocks are sized by market cap from SEC share counts; funds and UK and European listings are sized by traded value, and say so. A tile is never given a guessed size.
Prices are the latest stored closes, as of 22 Oct 2026. 210 of 210 listed symbols shown. Computed 23 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC.
1D price change-3% or lower-3% to -2%-2% to -1%-1% to -0.25%within 0.25%+0.25% to +1%+1% to +2%+2% to +3%+3% or higherstale, or no figure (reason on the tile)
Stocks, sized by market cap (145)
Tile area is in proportion to market cap: the SEC share count (the one the screener and the company page use) x the latest stored close. Compare tiles within this panel only.
Funds (ETFs and ETNs), sized by traded value (54)
A fund has no share count in SEC company data. Tile area is in proportion to traded value in US dollars: the median over the last 20 stored sessions of close x volume. It is a measure of how much trades, not of company size. Compare tiles within this panel only.
Not sized (11)
Each tile here is drawn at one fixed size and says why it could not be sized. Nothing is given a guessed size.
Select a tile for its closes, dates, size arithmetic and source, and for links to its company page or a backtest. Those two links open in the app, which needs an account.
How the map is computed
1D: the latest stored close against the previous stored session's close.
1W: the latest stored close against the close on, or the last session before, the date 7 days earlier.
1M: the latest stored close against the close on, or the last session before, the same day one month earlier.
YTD: the latest stored close against the last close of the previous calendar year.
Source: Quantis daily bars (Yahoo Finance daily OHLCV, split-adjusted, dividends not added back). Price changes are price returns: dividends are not included. Each tile states the date of the close it uses.
Tile areas are to scale within a panel, apart from the 2-pixel gap between tiles.
Colour shows the price change for the chosen window. A tile marked stale has a latest bar older than the map's date and is drawn without colour.
A change is withheld, with the reason, when its window contains a one-day move the size of a stock split: the stored series may not be adjusted for it.
Our US list is 210 large stocks and funds, not the whole market.
No crypto: our backtest engine does not run crypto, so the map does not show any.
Bubble cycle monitor
Valuation, leverage and investment on one side; volatility, interest rates, credit and breadth on the other. Each indicator is scored from 0 to 100 against its own history, the scores are averaged into one composite, and the composite is set beside what it read at prior market peaks. It measures how stretched today's readings are against the past. It does not say the market is in a bubble, and it is not a forecast.
Where this cycle sits
One number from 0 to 100: the average of the indicators' scores below, each score being where that indicator sits in its own history, turned so that higher always means more stretched. The markers under the track are the same average on the day of each prior peak and its long-run median.
Now74.2
Normal 53.22000 67.52007 54.52022 61.3
0 · least stretched50most stretched · 100
Now (23 Oct 2026): 74.2, on 9 of 9 indicators
Normal: 53.2, the median of 547 month ends from Mar 1981 to Sep 2026
2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 67.5, on 8 of 9 indicators. SPY then fell 49.1% to its low on 9 Oct 2002
2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 54.5, on 8 of 9 indicators. SPY then fell 56.5% to its low on 9 Mar 2009
2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 61.3, on 9 of 9 indicators. SPY then fell 25.4% to its low on 12 Oct 2022
The markers do not all rest on the same indicators. Today: 9 of 9. 2000 peak: 8 of 9 (without Hyperscaler capital spending to operating cash flow). 2007 peak: 8 of 9 (without Hyperscaler capital spending to operating cash flow). 2022 peak: 9 of 9. Like for like: the same mean over the 8 indicators every marker has. Now 71.0; 2000 peak 67.5; 2007 peak 54.5; 2022 peak 61.2.
A gauge, not a forecast: it says where today's readings sit against their own past, not what happens next. Scores are set with hindsight over each indicator's whole history. How it is computed.
Valuation, leverage and investment
99.4of 100
The mean score of 3 of its 3 indicators today.
How highly companies are valued against the economy, how much is borrowed against securities, and how much of their cash flow the largest technology companies spend on capacity.
2000 peak: 94.9 (2 of 3) · 2007 peak: 87.8 (2 of 3) · 2022 peak: 85.9 (3 of 3)
Conditions
61.5of 100
The mean score of 6 of its 6 indicators today.
Volatility, the yield curve, the credit premium and how many stocks are taking part.
2000 peak: 58.4 (6 of 6) · 2007 peak: 43.3 (6 of 6) · 2022 peak: 49.0 (6 of 6)
What followed readings like this
5 of 1412-month windows
After composite readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (65.5 to 80.9), SPY closed 10% or more below that day's close at some point in the next 12 months in 5 of 14 12-month windows that do not overlap. Counting every month-end reading, which overlap heavily: 32 of 97, in 12 separate episodes.
For comparison, over all composite readings whatever the level: 11 of 32 windows that do not overlap, and 124 of 393 month-end readings.
A count of what happened in the stored history, not a probability and not a forecast.
The indicators
Now, normal (the median of the indicator's stored history) and the reading that had been published by each prior peak. The composite is the average of the Score column. Choose an indicator for its chart, formula, source and what followed readings like today's.
Each indicator: today's reading, its normal (median) reading, its reading at each prior peak, its score from 0 to 100 and where that sits on the track
A prior peak is a SPY closing high that was followed, before SPY next closed above it, by a close at least 20% lower, where the lowest close of that fall came 180 days or more after the high. The dates are found from our stored SPY closes by that rule; none is typed in. Falls of the same size that reached their low sooner are listed, and are not used as markers. Not used: SPY fell 20.2% from its close on 20 Sep 2018, reaching its low 95 days later (24 Dec 2018): sooner than 180 days, so it is not used as a marker. SPY fell 34.1% from its close on 19 Feb 2020, reaching its low 33 days later (23 Mar 2020): sooner than 180 days, so it is not used as a marker.
Composite over time
One point per month end, and today's reading last. Each point is the composite as it would have been computed that day from the readings published by then; the number of indicators it rests on grows as their histories begin. No smoothing. The dashed vertical lines are the prior peaks; the dashed level is the long-run median. The first point rests on 5 indicators and the latest on 9.
This cycle against the months before prior peaks
2000 peak (24 Mar 2000)
2007 peak (9 Oct 2007)
2022 peak (3 Jan 2022)
Today
Each line is the month-end composite over the 36 months before a prior peak, ending on the peak day. Today's line ends today: it is aligned on today only so the paths can be compared, and today is not known to be a peak.
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. SPY is an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 after its fees. Its stored history starts on 29 Jan 1993, so no forward return is measured from an earlier date. Computed 23 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC.
Volatility
VIX: implied volatility of S&P 500 options
Higher means option prices imply larger moves in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. Lower means calmer pricing.
16.68
Daily reading for 21 Oct 2026
44th percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
44.4% of the 9,300 daily readings from 2 Jan 1990 to 21 Oct 2026 are at or below it.
Score 55.7 of 100. Scores higher when the VIX is lower (calmer option pricing). The score is the share of its stored readings at or above today's: 55.7%. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 17.56. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 23.31, the reading for 24 Mar 2000, score 22.7. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 16.12, the reading for 9 Oct 2007, score 60.1. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 16.60, the reading for 3 Jan 2022, score 56.4.
One point per calendar month: the line is the month's last reading and the shaded band runs from the month's lowest to its highest daily reading. No smoothing. The percentile uses every daily reading.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (16.12 to 19.39), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +14.9%, ranging from -42.2% to +52.5%, and rose 83% of the time. That is 1,472 daily readings, but they overlap: they amount to 28 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 28 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +12.9%). Across all readings the median was +14.4%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
9.14 to 13.34
+13.2%(-13.8% to +40.0%)
+12.9%
92%
1,800
16
8
+12.1%
Second fifth
13.35 to 16.11
+15.2%(-19.0% to +43.6%)
+14.5%
92%
1,589
22
13
+11.0%
Middle fifthtoday
16.12 to 19.39
+14.9%(-42.2% to +52.5%)
+12.4%
83%
1,472
28
28
+12.9%
Fourth fifth
19.40 to 24.15
+11.5%(-45.2% to +53.7%)
+6.3%
66%
1,675
28
25
+15.9%
Highest fifth
24.16 to 82.69
+17.9%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+14.6%
77%
1,729
20
18
+15.0%
All readings
all
+14.4%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+12.1%
82%
8,265
33
+15.4%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. The reading is known at that day's close; the 12 months are measured from SPY's close on the same day (or its next session). The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
The daily closing level of the Cboe Volatility Index, as published. No calculation by us.
VIX close: 16.68 index points (21 Oct 2026, VIXCLS)
Source
CBOE Volatility Index: VIX (VIXCLS)Chicago Board Options Exchange, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Last fetched 22 Oct 2026, 22:56 UTC.Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission.FRED label: Copyrighted, citation required. Used with attribution to the publisher and to FRED.
FRED posts each close the next business day.
Rates
Yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year Treasury
Below zero means short-term yields are above long-term yields (an inverted curve). Higher means a steeper curve.
0.31 pts
Daily reading for 22 Oct 2026
31st percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
30.9% of the 12,595 daily readings from 1 Jun 1976 to 22 Oct 2026 are at or below it.
Score 69.4 of 100. Scores higher when the curve is flatter or inverted (a lower reading). The score is the share of its stored readings at or above today's: 69.4%. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 0.77 pts. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): -0.44 pts, the reading for 24 Mar 2000, score 93.4. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 0.52 pts, the reading for 9 Oct 2007, score 59.8. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 0.85 pts, the reading for 3 Jan 2022, score 47.0.
One point per calendar month: the line is the month's last reading and the shaded band runs from the month's lowest to its highest daily reading. No smoothing. The percentile uses every daily reading.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (0.10 pts to 0.50 pts), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +16.2%, ranging from -42.2% to +77.5%, and rose 87% of the time. That is 1,861 daily readings, but they overlap: they amount to 15 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 10 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +18.2%). Across all readings the median was +14.4%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
-2.41 pts to 0.09 pts
+15.2%(-32.2% to +42.9%)
+11.4%
75%
1,359
10
6
+17.6%
Second fifthtoday
0.10 pts to 0.50 pts
+16.2%(-42.2% to +77.5%)
+15.9%
87%
1,861
15
10
+18.2%
Middle fifth
0.51 pts to 1.03 pts
+19.0%(-46.7% to +73.0%)
+16.8%
84%
1,261
13
12
+23.6%
Fourth fifth
1.04 pts to 1.68 pts
+8.0%(-39.3% to +44.6%)
+6.0%
71%
1,495
12
9
+15.3%
Highest fifth
1.69 pts to 2.91 pts
+12.3%(-47.4% to +72.0%)
+10.8%
88%
2,213
12
6
+13.2%
All readings
all
+14.4%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+12.1%
82%
8,189
33
+14.8%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. The reading is known at that day's close; the 12 months are measured from SPY's close on the same day (or its next session). The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 2-year yield, in percentage points, as published daily by the St. Louis Fed.
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield: 0.31 percentage points (22 Oct 2026, T10Y2Y)
Published each business day after the Treasury's yields.
Rates
Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury
Below zero means the 3-month yield is above the 10-year yield (an inverted curve). Higher means a steeper curve.
0.74 pts
Daily reading for 22 Oct 2026
29th percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
29.2% of the 11,204 daily readings from 4 Jan 1982 to 22 Oct 2026 are at or below it.
Score 71.1 of 100. Scores higher when the curve is flatter or inverted (a lower reading). The score is the share of its stored readings at or above today's: 71.1%. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 1.57 pts. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 0.29 pts, the reading for 24 Mar 2000, score 82.3. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 0.61 pts, the reading for 9 Oct 2007, score 73.8. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 1.55 pts, the reading for 3 Jan 2022, score 51.0.
One point per calendar month: the line is the month's last reading and the shaded band runs from the month's lowest to its highest daily reading. No smoothing. The percentile uses every daily reading.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (0.38 pts to 1.21 pts), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +15.3%, ranging from -46.7% to +77.5%, and rose 85% of the time. That is 1,652 daily readings, but they overlap: they amount to 15 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 13 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +17.8%). Across all readings the median was +14.4%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
-1.89 pts to 0.37 pts
+16.4%(-32.2% to +43.9%)
+12.6%
78%
1,915
13
7
+17.8%
Second fifthtoday
0.38 pts to 1.21 pts
+15.3%(-46.7% to +77.5%)
+13.8%
85%
1,652
15
13
+17.8%
Middle fifth
1.22 pts to 1.95 pts
+17.3%(-46.3% to +53.7%)
+13.8%
77%
1,701
16
12
+13.8%
Fourth fifth
1.96 pts to 2.70 pts
+10.0%(-47.4% to +72.0%)
+9.1%
83%
1,454
14
10
+13.5%
Highest fifth
2.71 pts to 5.18 pts
+11.3%(-40.4% to +63.0%)
+10.6%
88%
1,467
10
6
+13.1%
All readings
all
+14.4%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+12.1%
82%
8,189
33
+14.8%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. The reading is known at that day's close; the 12 months are measured from SPY's close on the same day (or its next session). The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 3-month yield, in percentage points, as published daily by the St. Louis Fed.
10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield: 0.74 percentage points (22 Oct 2026, T10Y3M)
Published each business day after the Treasury's yields.
Credit
Investment-grade credit spread
Higher means investors ask for more extra yield to hold high-quality corporate bonds instead of Treasuries. Lower means a thinner premium.
0.78 pts
Monthly reading for September 2026 (to 30 Sep 2026)
21st percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
21.1% of the 513 monthly readings from Jan 1984 to Sep 2026 are at or below it.
Score 79.7 of 100. Scores higher when the spread is thinner (lenders are paid less for credit risk). The score is the share of its stored readings at or above today's: 79.7%. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 1.01 pts. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 1.31 pts, the reading for February 2000, score 30.4. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 1.35 pts, the reading for August 2007, score 28.3. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 0.98 pts, the reading for November 2021, score 53.6.
Every monthly reading as published, joined by straight lines. A period with no reading is left as a gap.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (0.77 pts to 0.91 pts), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +11.0%, ranging from -5.6% to +31.7%, and rose 95% of the time. That is 58 monthly readings, but they overlap: they amount to 9 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 7 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +11.9%). Across all readings the median was +14.5%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: Jan 1993 to Sep 2025.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: Jan 1993 to Sep 2025.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
0.17 pts to 0.77 pts
+22.3%(+1.3% to +50.4%)
+22.7%
100%
70
7
4
+19.9%
Second fifthtoday
0.77 pts to 0.91 pts
+11.0%(-5.6% to +31.7%)
+11.3%
95%
58
9
7
+11.9%
Middle fifth
0.92 pts to 1.16 pts
+10.5%(-18.6% to +68.2%)
+9.3%
76%
76
13
12
+17.4%
Fourth fifth
1.17 pts to 1.44 pts
+15.4%(-40.7% to +37.3%)
+11.9%
77%
88
15
14
+18.5%
Highest fifth
1.44 pts to 4.83 pts
+13.7%(-37.6% to +57.0%)
+7.9%
70%
101
13
8
+15.6%
All readings
all
+14.5%(-40.7% to +68.2%)
+12.2%
82%
393
32
+16.8%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. A month's figure is published early the following month. It is treated as known 15 days after the month ends, and the 12 months start at SPY's first session on or after that date. The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
The US Treasury's High Quality Market 10-year corporate bond par yield (bonds rated AAA, AA or A) minus the monthly average 10-year Treasury yield, in percentage points. Our subtraction of two published monthly figures.
High-quality corporate bond 10-year par yield: 5.77 % (Sep 2026, HQMCB10YRP)
This is an investment-grade spread, not a high-yield (junk bond) spread. The well-known high-yield spreads are licensed data we may not republish (see the list of indicators left out).
The corporate figure is a par yield from a fitted curve and the Treasury figure is a constant-maturity yield: close, but not the same construction.
Monthly: a month's figure appears early the following month.
Valuation
Corporate equities to GDP
Higher means listed and unlisted nonfinancial companies are valued at more relative to the size of the economy. It has trended upward over decades, so compare with recent decades as well as the whole history.
255.0%
Quarterly reading for 2026 Q2 (to 30 Jun 2026)
100th percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
100.0% of the 303 quarterly readings from 1947 Q4 to 2026 Q2 are at or below it.
Score 100.0 of 100. Scores higher when equities are worth more relative to GDP. The score is the percentile: 100.0% of its stored readings are at or below today's. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 72.1%. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 155.4%, the reading for 1999 Q4, score 91.1. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 120.8%, the reading for 2007 Q2, score 79.2. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 210.7%, the reading for 2021 Q3, score 97.7.
Every quarterly reading as published, joined by straight lines. A period with no reading is left as a gap.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (124.3% to 255.0%), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +13.2%, ranging from -25.2% to +68.2%, and rose 79% of the time. That is 57 quarterly readings, but they overlap: they amount to 14 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 2 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +14.3%). Across all readings the median was +13.8%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 1992 Q4 to 2025 Q2.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 1992 Q4 to 2025 Q2.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
32.2% to 47.3%
No reading in this band has a completed 12-month window after it.
0
0
0
Second fifth
47.4% to 64.7%
Only 1 non-overlapping 12-month window (1 overlapping reading): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
1
1
1
Middle fifth
64.8% to 80.7%
+19.4%(+0.8% to +57.0%)
+19.2%
100%
16
5
5
+19.9%
Fourth fifth
80.8% to 122.4%
+14.0%(-38.3% to +38.0%)
+10.9%
77%
57
15
5
+14.0%
Highest fifthtoday
124.3% to 255.0%
+13.2%(-25.2% to +68.2%)
+11.6%
79%
57
14
2
+14.3%
All readings
all
+13.8%(-38.3% to +68.2%)
+12.3%
81%
131
31
+11.9%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. A quarter's figure is published about ten weeks after the quarter ends. It is treated as known 75 days after the quarter ends, and the 12 months start at SPY's first session on or after that date. The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
The market value of US nonfinancial corporate equities (the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts, table Z.1) divided by GDP at an annual rate for the same quarter, as a percentage.
Market value of US nonfinancial corporate equities: 83,050,847 $ millions (2026 Q2, NCBEILQ027S)
US GDP, annual rate: 32,563.03 $ billions (2026 Q2, GDP)
A proxy for market cap to GDP: it covers nonfinancial corporations only (no banks or insurers) and includes unlisted companies as the Fed estimates them.
The history is the series as published today. Past figures have been revised since they first came out, so a past reading here is not always what was known at the time.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Last fetched 22 Oct 2026, 22:56 UTC.FRED label: Public Domain, citation requested. Used with attribution to the publisher and to FRED.
Quarterly and lagged: the Fed publishes a quarter about ten weeks after it ends.
Leverage
Margin loans to GDP
Higher means customers owe brokers more, relative to the size of the economy. Lower means less borrowing against securities.
2.28%
Quarterly reading for 2026 Q2 (to 30 Jun 2026)
98th percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
98.3% of the 303 quarterly readings from 1947 Q4 to 2026 Q2 are at or below it.
Score 98.3 of 100. Scores higher when margin loans are larger relative to GDP. The score is the percentile: 98.3% of its stored readings are at or below today's. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 0.92%. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 2.30%, the reading for 1999 Q4, score 98.7. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 2.08%, the reading for 2007 Q2, score 96.4. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 2.14%, the reading for 2021 Q3, score 97.7.
Every quarterly reading as published, joined by straight lines. A period with no reading is left as a gap.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (1.50% to 2.64%), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +8.1%, ranging from -38.3% to +31.2%, and rose 63% of the time. That is 57 quarterly readings, but they overlap: they amount to 18 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 9 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +7.0%). Across all readings the median was +13.8%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 1992 Q4 to 2025 Q2.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 1992 Q4 to 2025 Q2.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
0.22% to 0.68%
No reading in this band has a completed 12-month window after it.
0
0
0
Second fifth
0.68% to 0.80%
Only 1 non-overlapping 12-month window (1 overlapping reading): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
1
1
1
Middle fifth
0.81% to 1.14%
+23.0%(+0.8% to +57.0%)
+23.4%
100%
19
5
2
+26.9%
Fourth fifth
1.14% to 1.49%
+17.9%(-13.8% to +68.2%)
+17.6%
93%
54
14
9
+17.2%
Highest fifthtoday
1.50% to 2.64%
+8.1%(-38.3% to +31.2%)
+3.7%
63%
57
18
9
+7.0%
All readings
all
+13.8%(-38.3% to +68.2%)
+12.3%
81%
131
31
+11.9%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. A quarter's figure is published about ten weeks after the quarter ends. It is treated as known 75 days after the quarter ends, and the 12 months start at SPY's first session on or after that date. The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
Security brokers' and dealers' receivables from customers (margin loans and other receivables; the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts, table Z.1) divided by GDP at an annual rate for the same quarter, as a percentage.
Broker-dealer receivables from customers (margin loans and other): 742,321 $ millions (2026 Q2, BOGZ1FL663067003Q)
US GDP, annual rate: 32,563.03 $ billions (2026 Q2, GDP)
This is the Federal Reserve's quarterly figure, not FINRA's monthly margin statistics (which we may not republish). It includes receivables other than margin loans.
The history is the series as published today. Past figures have been revised since they first came out, so a past reading here is not always what was known at the time.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Last fetched 22 Oct 2026, 22:56 UTC.FRED label: Public Domain, citation requested. Used with attribution to the publisher and to FRED.
Quarterly and lagged: the Fed publishes a quarter about ten weeks after it ends.
Breadth
Stocks above their 200-day average
Higher means more of the covered stocks are in a long-term uptrend. Lower means more of them are below their long-term average.
63.9%
Daily reading for 22 Oct 2026
40th percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
40.5% of the 11,547 daily readings from 30 Dec 1980 to 22 Oct 2026 are at or below it.
Score 59.6 of 100. Scores higher when fewer stocks are above their 200-day average (narrower participation). The score is the share of its stored readings at or above today's: 59.6%. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 68.6%. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 49.5%, the reading for 24 Mar 2000, score 80.0. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 76.7%, the reading for 9 Oct 2007, score 34.4. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 74.2%, the reading for 3 Jan 2022, score 39.1.
One point per calendar month: the line is the month's last reading and the shaded band runs from the month's lowest to its highest daily reading. No smoothing. The percentile uses every daily reading.
Counts 155 of the 156 US stocks we cover (156 have stored prices). The number counted is lower further back, as fewer of today's companies were listed. Stocks counted: 56 in Dec 1980, 155 in Oct 2026; point at the chart for the number in any month.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (63.6% to 73.6%), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +11.1%, ranging from -42.2% to +52.6%, and rose 84% of the time. That is 1,682 daily readings, but they overlap: they amount to 27 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 28 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +16.4%). Across all readings the median was +14.4%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
0.0% to 49.5%
+17.2%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+12.7%
73%
1,582
19
22
+11.2%
Second fifth
49.5% to 63.6%
+12.8%(-46.7% to +53.7%)
+9.2%
72%
1,673
27
25
+16.9%
Middle fifthtoday
63.6% to 73.6%
+11.1%(-42.2% to +52.6%)
+10.9%
84%
1,682
27
28
+16.4%
Fourth fifth
73.7% to 83.7%
+15.0%(-42.2% to +48.8%)
+13.9%
89%
1,698
28
25
+16.0%
Highest fifth
83.7% to 100.0%
+14.3%(-12.1% to +36.1%)
+13.9%
91%
1,605
19
19
+16.9%
All readings
all
+14.4%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+12.1%
82%
8,240
33
+14.8%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. The reading is known at that day's close; the 12 months are measured from SPY's close on the same day (or its next session). The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
Of the US stocks we cover that have at least 200 stored daily closes, the percentage whose latest close is above the plain average of their own last 200 closes.
Stocks above their 200-session average: 99 stocks (22 Oct 2026)
Stocks counted (at least 200 stored closes): 155 stocks (22 Oct 2026)
Our US list is today's large companies. Stocks that were delisted, taken over or shrank out of the list are missing from the past, so past readings are flattered (survivorship bias).
Prices are split-adjusted closes without dividends added back.
Source
Quantis daily bars (market_prices): split-adjusted daily closes of the covered US stocksQuantis Trade, from Yahoo Finance daily OHLCV.Computed by us from our stored daily prices. Only the computed percentage is shown, not the prices.
Computed from our stored daily closes, refreshed after each US session.
Breadth
New 52-week highs minus new lows
Above zero means more covered stocks closed at a one-year high than at a one-year low. Below zero means the opposite.
6.5%
Daily reading for 22 Oct 2026
66th percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
66.5% of the 11,495 daily readings from 16 Mar 1981 to 22 Oct 2026 are at or below it.
Score 33.8 of 100. Scores higher when new lows outnumber new highs by more (narrower participation). The score is the share of its stored readings at or above today's: 33.8%. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 3.5%. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 5.0%, the reading for 24 Mar 2000, score 41.6. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 20.7%, the reading for 9 Oct 2007, score 3.7. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 4.0%, the reading for 3 Jan 2022, score 47.0.
One point per calendar month: the line is the month's last reading and the shaded band runs from the month's lowest to its highest daily reading. No smoothing. The percentile uses every daily reading.
Counts 155 of the 156 US stocks we cover (156 have stored prices). The number counted is lower further back, as fewer of today's companies were listed. Stocks counted: 56 in Mar 1981, 155 in Oct 2026; point at the chart for the number in any month.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (5.2% to 10.3%), SPY's total return over the next 12 months had a median of +13.8%, ranging from -42.2% to +51.9%, and rose 85% of the time. That is 1,758 daily readings, but they overlap: they amount to 32 12-month windows that do not overlap, in 7 separate episodes (median of those windows alone: +12.3%). Across all readings the median was +14.4%.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 29 Jan 1993 to 22 Oct 2025.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
-73.3% to -0.6%
+16.8%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+13.0%
77%
1,475
30
29
+12.5%
Second fifth
0.0% to 1.9%
+14.5%(-45.2% to +65.4%)
+11.1%
76%
1,707
32
3
+15.4%
Middle fifth
1.9% to 5.2%
+13.6%(-44.0% to +55.8%)
+11.1%
82%
1,655
32
4
+14.3%
Fourth fifthtoday
5.2% to 10.3%
+13.8%(-42.2% to +51.9%)
+12.1%
85%
1,758
32
7
+12.3%
Highest fifth
10.3% to 57.4%
+14.4%(-42.2% to +41.7%)
+13.4%
88%
1,645
29
22
+12.2%
All readings
all
+14.4%(-47.4% to +77.5%)
+12.1%
82%
8,240
33
+14.8%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. The reading is known at that day's close; the 12 months are measured from SPY's close on the same day (or its next session). The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
Of the US stocks we cover that have at least 252 stored daily closes: the number whose latest close is their highest of the last 252 closes, minus the number whose latest close is their lowest, as a percentage of those stocks.
Stocks at a 252-session closing high: 11 stocks (22 Oct 2026)
Stocks at a 252-session closing low: 1 stocks (22 Oct 2026)
Stocks counted (at least 252 stored closes): 155 stocks (22 Oct 2026)
Our US list is today's large companies. Stocks that were delisted, taken over or shrank out of the list are missing from the past, so past readings are flattered (survivorship bias).
Closing prices only (252 sessions is about one year): an intraday high or low that did not hold to the close is not counted.
Source
Quantis daily bars (market_prices): split-adjusted daily closes of the covered US stocksQuantis Trade, from Yahoo Finance daily OHLCV.Computed by us from our stored daily prices. Only the computed percentage is shown, not the prices.
Computed from our stored daily closes, refreshed after each US session.
Investment
Hyperscaler capital spending to operating cash flow
Higher means the four companies are putting a larger share of the cash their businesses generate into property and equipment (data centres, chips, networks). Lower means a smaller share.
77.3%
Quarterly reading for 2026 Q2 (to 30 Jun 2026)
100th percentile of its history
lowestmiddlehighest
100.0% of the 45 quarterly readings from 2013 Q4 to 2026 Q2 are at or below it.
Score 100.0 of 100. Scores higher when capital spending takes a larger share of operating cash flow. The score is the percentile: 100.0% of its stored readings are at or below today's. It counts in today's composite.
Normal (the median of its stored readings): 40.8%. 2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): no reading. No reading had been published by 24 Mar 2000: the stored history starts with 2013 Q4. 2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): no reading. No reading had been published by 9 Oct 2007: the stored history starts with 2013 Q4. 2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 43.0%, the reading for 2021 Q3, score 62.2.
Every quarterly reading as published, joined by straight lines. A period with no reading is left as a gap.
What happened after readings like this
After past readings in the same fifth of its history as today's (53.8% to 77.3%): Only 2 non-overlapping 12-month windows (5 overlapping readings): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 2013 Q4 to 2025 Q2.
SPY total return over the 12 months after each past reading, by fifth of the indicator's history. Readings with a completed 12 months: 2013 Q4 to 2025 Q2.
Readings in the
Reading range
Median (lowest to highest)
Mean
Share that rose
Readings (they overlap)
Windows that do not overlap
Episodes
Median of those windows
Lowest fifth
28.0% to 31.8%
Only 3 non-overlapping 12-month windows (9 overlapping readings): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
9
3
3
Second fifth
33.0% to 40.0%
Only 4 non-overlapping 12-month windows (9 overlapping readings): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
9
4
4
Middle fifth
40.1% to 42.3%
Only 3 non-overlapping 12-month windows (9 overlapping readings): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
9
3
5
Fourth fifth
43.0% to 51.0%
Only 4 non-overlapping 12-month windows (9 overlapping readings): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
9
4
4
Highest fifthtoday
53.8% to 77.3%
Only 2 non-overlapping 12-month windows (5 overlapping readings): too few to say anything, so no return figure is shown.
5
2
2
All readings
all
+16.4%(-13.6% to +39.6%)
+14.9%
88%
41
11
+13.8%
SPY total return: dividends credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. Large companies must file a quarterly report within 40 days of the quarter's end and an annual report within 60 days. A quarter's figure is treated as known 60 days after the quarter ends, and the 12 months start at SPY's first session on or after that date. The median, range, mean and share that rose are over every reading in the band; because readings a day apart share most of their 12 months, the number of windows that do not overlap and of separate episodes says how much independent evidence that is, and the last column shows the median of those windows alone. A band with fewer than 5 such windows shows no return figure. This describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What this number is
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms: their capital expenditure over the last four reported quarters, added together, divided by their cash from operations over the same four quarters, added together, as a percentage. Read from the cash flow statements each company tags in its SEC filings (XBRL elements PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment or PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets, and NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities).
Microsoft: capital expenditure, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment): $116B (30 Jun 2026)
Microsoft: cash from operations, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities): $183B (30 Jun 2026)
Alphabet: capital expenditure, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment): $132B (30 Jun 2026)
Alphabet: cash from operations, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities): $186B (30 Jun 2026)
Amazon: capital expenditure, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets): $173B (30 Jun 2026)
Amazon: cash from operations, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities): $161B (30 Jun 2026)
Meta Platforms: capital expenditure, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment): $89.3B (30 Jun 2026)
Meta Platforms: cash from operations, four quarters to 30 Jun 2026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities): $130B (30 Jun 2026)
The history starts with the first quarter for which all four companies have four reported quarters in SEC's XBRL data under their present registrant. Alphabet's filings before its 2015 reorganisation are under its predecessor registrant (Google Inc.) and are not joined here, which is what sets the start. There is no reading for the 2000 or 2007 peaks, and no other measure is put in their place.
A quarter for which any one of the four has no figure tagged under these elements is left as a gap, not estimated.
Four companies chosen by us: the largest builders of cloud and AI data centres whose quarters end on the same dates. Microsoft's financial year ends in June; its quarters still end with the calendar quarters. Oracle (quarters ending in February, May, August and November) and Apple are not included.
Capital expenditure is cash paid for property and equipment as each company tags it. Equipment acquired under finance leases is not in that line, so total spending on capacity is higher.
Each period's figure is taken from the most recent filing that reports it, so a later restatement replaces the figure first filed.
Source
Microsoft: cash flow statements in its annual and quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR. Last fetched 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC.SEC EDGAR: information on sec.gov is public and may be copied or distributed without the SEC's permission. Figures are as each company tagged them in its filings.
Alphabet: cash flow statements in its annual and quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR. Last fetched 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC.SEC EDGAR: information on sec.gov is public and may be copied or distributed without the SEC's permission. Figures are as each company tagged them in its filings.
Amazon: cash flow statements in its annual and quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR. Last fetched 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC.SEC EDGAR: information on sec.gov is public and may be copied or distributed without the SEC's permission. Figures are as each company tagged them in its filings.
Last change: raised by 0.25 points on 17 Sep 2026.
Shown for context. It is not scored: the level and direction of the policy rate are background, not a reading of the cycle.
What this number is
The Federal Reserve's target for the federal funds rate: the single target rate up to 15 December 2008, and the upper limit of the target range from 16 December 2008. The last change is the most recent day the stored figure differs from the day before.
Normal (the median of 16,097 stored figures, 27 Sep 1982 to 22 Oct 2026): 4.00%
2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): 6.00% (24 Mar 2000). Last change before it: raised by 0.25 points on 21 Mar 2000.
2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): 4.75% (9 Oct 2007). Last change before it: lowered by 0.50 points on 18 Sep 2007.
2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): 0.25% (3 Jan 2022). Last change before it: lowered by 1.00 points on 16 Mar 2020.
Since December 2008 the Fed sets a range a quarter of a point wide; the figure is the top of it.
Source
Federal Funds Target Rate (DISCONTINUED) (DFEDTAR)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Last fetched 22 Oct 2026, 22:56 UTC.FRED label: Public Domain, citation requested. Used with attribution to the publisher and to FRED.
Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Last fetched 22 Oct 2026, 22:56 UTC.FRED label: Public Domain, citation requested. Used with attribution to the publisher and to FRED.
Context, not scored
Ten largest covered US stocks: share of market value
51.5%
22 Oct 2026
Ten largest: NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, AVGO, TSLA, LLY, BRK-B. 145 of 156 covered US stocks counted (11 have no usable share count, or are a second listing of a company already counted).
Not scored: there is no history on the same basis. SEC's data carries no past share count for companies with more than one share class (Alphabet, Meta and Berkshire Hathaway among today's largest), so the share at an earlier date cannot be computed the way today's is.
The ten largest covered US stocks by market value, and each one's share of the total
Company
Market value
Share of the total
NVDA NVIDIA Corp.
$5.11T
9.5%
AAPL Apple Inc.
$5.08T
9.4%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc.
$3.97T
7.3%
MSFT Microsoft Corp.
$3.87T
7.2%
AMZN Amazon.com Inc.
$2.70T
5.0%
META Meta Platforms Inc.
$1.66T
3.1%
AVGO Broadcom Inc.
$1.54T
2.9%
TSLA Tesla Inc.
$1.48T
2.7%
LLY Eli Lilly and Co.
$1.23T
2.3%
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Class B)
$1.17T
2.2%
What this number is
The market value of the ten largest US stocks we cover, divided by the market value of every US stock we cover that has a share count, as a percentage. Market value = shares outstanding from the company's latest SEC filing x the latest stored close, one figure per company (the market values the US map shows).
Market value of the ten largest: $27.8T (22 Oct 2026)
Market value of the 145 stocks counted: $54.0T (22 Oct 2026)
Stocks counted: 145 stocks (22 Oct 2026)
2000 peak (24 Mar 2000): No history on the same basis (see the note on this row).
2007 peak (9 Oct 2007): No history on the same basis (see the note on this row).
2022 peak (3 Jan 2022): No history on the same basis (see the note on this row).
This is the share within our own list of covered US stocks. It is not the weight of the ten largest companies in the S&P 500, which is S&P's data, and it is higher than that weight because our list is shorter than the index.
A company whose share count cannot be read from its filings is left out of both the ten and the total; the row says how many stocks are counted.
Quantis daily bars (market_prices): the latest stored close of each covered US stockQuantis Trade, from Yahoo Finance daily OHLCV.Computed by us from our stored daily prices. Only the computed percentage and market values are shown.
Indicators we left out, and why
High-yield credit spread (ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread)(ICE Data Indices, via FRED)ICE's notice on the series forbids reproducing the data without its written permission, and since April 2026 FRED carries only three years of it, which is too short to rank today's reading against. The investment-grade spread above is built from public Treasury data instead.
Moody's Baa corporate bond spread(Moody's, via FRED)Moody's notice on the series forbids storing or redistributing the data without its written consent.
Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price to earnings)(Robert J. Shiller)The data is offered for download with no stated right to republish it, it is built from S&P index data that S&P restricts, and the file has no stable address a daily job can fetch. Not shown until we have permission.
FINRA margin debt(FINRA margin statistics)FINRA's terms allow personal, non-commercial use only and forbid automated collection. The margin loans figure above comes from the Federal Reserve's public quarterly accounts instead.
AAII investor sentiment (bulls minus bears)(American Association of Individual Investors)The survey's history is offered to AAII members, and AAII's terms say no part of its site's contents may be copied or forwarded to anyone else. Not shown without AAII's permission.
Equity risk premium and forward earnings yield (S&P 500)(S&P Dow Jones Indices and analyst-estimate vendors)Both need forecast earnings for the S&P 500. Those forecasts are compiled and sold by data vendors and by S&P, and we found no public source with a clear right to republish them.
S&P 500 price to sales(S&P Dow Jones Indices)Index-level sales per share is S&P's own data, which S&P restricts. We do not build a figure from our shorter list of companies and call it the S&P 500's.
S&P 500 weight of the ten largest companies(S&P Dow Jones Indices)Index weights are S&P's data, which S&P restricts. The share of our own covered US stocks' market value held by the ten largest is shown instead, named as that, without a score because it has no history on the same basis.
Share of new listings (IPOs) with negative earnings(Professor Jay R. Ritter's IPO tables)We hold no IPO data to compute it from, and the usual source publishes it as tables in occasional documents rather than a series a daily job can read. Not built.
Hyperscaler capital spending in 2000 and 2007(SEC EDGAR)SEC's tagged financial data starts in 2009, so the capital spending indicator has no reading at the 2000 or 2007 peaks. We do not put telecom or dot-com era spending in its place as if it were the same measure.
How the cycle monitor is computed
Composite: The composite is the plain mean of the scores of the 9 scored indicators. An indicator's score is where its reading sits in its own stored history, from 0 to 100, turned so that a higher score always means more stretched: for an indicator that counts higher, the share of its stored readings at or below the reading; for one that counts lower, the share at or above it. Today's composite uses each indicator's latest stored reading (the Score column), so it is the average of that column. An indicator with no reading for a date is left out, and each figure says how many indicators it rests on; with fewer than 5 the composite is not stated.
Which way each indicator counts is our choice, stated in its row. A different choice gives a different composite.
Every indicator has the same weight. The two yield curves and the two breadth measures are counted separately, so the curve and breadth each carry two of the scores.
Scores are set over each indicator's whole stored history, so a reading from long ago is scored against years that came after it (hindsight). For a past date the composite uses the readings that had been published by then, under the publication lag stated with each indicator.
Indicators and the way they count: VIX: implied volatility of S&P 500 options (lower); Yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year Treasury (lower); Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury (lower); Investment-grade credit spread (lower); Corporate equities to GDP (higher); Margin loans to GDP (higher); Stocks above their 200-day average (lower); New 52-week highs minus new lows (lower); Hyperscaler capital spending to operating cash flow (higher).
Prior peaks: A prior peak is a SPY closing high that was followed, before SPY next closed above it, by a close at least 20% lower, where the lowest close of that fall came 180 days or more after the high. The dates are found from our stored SPY closes by that rule; none is typed in. Falls of the same size that reached their low sooner are listed, and are not used as markers.
What followed readings like this: For each month-end composite reading, the entry is SPY's first session on or after the month end. "Fell" means SPY closed at least 10% below its entry close on some day in the 12 months after the entry session (closing prices, dividends not counted). Readings a month apart share most of their 12 months, so the count is also given over the 12-month windows that do not overlap (taken from the earliest onwards) and by separate episode (readings in the band no more than 100 days apart are one episode). The bands are fifths of the composite's own month-end history, set with hindsight. This is a count of what happened, not a probability of what will.
Percentile: the share of an indicator's stored readings that are at or below the latest one. 90 means nine readings in ten were at or below today's. The window is the indicator's whole stored history and is stated with each figure.
Bands: the readings are split into fifths of that percentile scale. Because the fifths are set over the whole history, a reading from long ago is graded with hindsight. The tables describe the past; they are not a rule anyone could have traded at the time.
12-month return after a reading: SPY's total-return index at its last session on or before the date one calendar year after the entry session, divided by the index at the entry session, minus 1. The entry session is SPY's first session on or after the date the reading is treated as known.
Why three counts: readings a day apart share almost all of their 12-month window, so the number of readings overstates the evidence. We also show how many 12-month windows do not overlap at all, and how many separate episodes the readings fall into (readings in the band no more than 100 days apart count as one episode).
Return figures are shown as a median and a range, not only an average, over every reading in the band, and only for a band with at least 5 non-overlapping windows. With fewer, the page says there is too little to go on. The median of the non-overlapping windows alone is shown beside it: when the two differ, that is how much the answer depends on which days are sampled.
SPY total return: dividends are credited on the ex-date and reinvested at that day's close, before tax and costs. SPY's stored history starts in 1993, so no table reaches further back, whatever the indicator's own history.
Quarterly and monthly indicators are revised by their publishers, and are published weeks after the period ends. The tables use the figures as published today and a fixed publication lag, stated with each indicator.
Stored closes are split-adjusted by the price source. When a share splits later, its whole history is read again on the new basis once the source lists the split. Until that has happened, the days before the split are on the old basis. So breadth treats any one-day move the size of a split as a break in that share's history: its averages and highs restart there, and the move is not read as a fall. Some of these are real moves and not splits. Breaks in the covered stocks: AAPL 29 Sep 2000 (x0.48), REGN 31 Mar 2003 (x0.43), MO 31 Mar 2008 (x0.30), MS 13 Oct 2008 (x1.87), OXY 9 Mar 2020 (x0.47), MRNA 19 Aug 2026 (x2.77).
Market Pulse describes the past and the present. It is a gauge of where a set of indicators sits in its own history, not a forecast, not a signal to buy or sell, and not investment advice. Past returns after similar readings varied widely and do not tell you what happens next. Capital is at risk.