Path
Is it luck?
- At the end
- You can say why a test that looks good can still be wrong, and set a rule to be watched from today on.
- How long
- 6 short steps, about 3 minutes to read.
- The time is the steps' 600 words at 200 words a minute. The walkthroughs and questions are extra.
A test that looks good can still be luck. These steps show the signs, and the checks that look for them.
The steps
0 of 6 done
- Fitting the past: Not done yet
- Too few trades: Not done yet
- Many tries, one winner: Not done yet
- Prove it: Not done yet
- Months it never saw: Not done yet
- Watch it from today on: Not done yet
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Go deeper
Longer pages to read, and guided tasks you do inside the product.
About 6 minutes to read. 7 steps to do in the product.
The reading time is 1,296 words at 200 words a minute. Nobody has timed the steps, so they are counted and not timed.
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- Read it
Read
Overfitting
When a rule fits the past so closely that it has learned the luck, not the pattern.
About 2 minutes to read.
- Do it with me
Do
Read your result
4 steps, in the product.
- Read it
Read
Three figures that ask about luck
The Sharpe ratio sets growth against how bumpy the ride was. The other two, PSR and DSR, ask how much of it could be luck.
About 3 minutes to read.
- Do it with me
Do
Watch a rule, or track it with pretend money
3 steps, in the product.
A test describes the past. It is not a forecast and it is not advice.