Could it be luck?
ExampleA real past test, kept for these lessons. Not your result.
- Random tries the rule beat
- Random tries that scored higher
- The rule
A rule can look good by luck. Prove it tries to break a rule in several ways.
One way: the same rule, but buying and selling on random days, many times over.
In this example, a golden cross on SPY, a fund of big US companies, beat 72% of 200 random tries. The pass mark is 90%.
So random days often did as well, and this check did not pass.
Check it landed
Two quick questions. Nothing is scored or kept.
What does this check set the rule against?
The rule beat 72% of the random tries. Did it pass?
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A test describes the past. It is not a forecast and it is not advice.
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