Core concepts
Prove it
Prove it runs a finished result through harder tests, to see whether luck alone could explain it.
The question it asks
A rule can look good by chance: try enough rules and one will fit the past. Prove it attacks a result from several sides and says, for each, whether the result survived.
The attacks
| Attack | What it tries |
|---|---|
| Random-entry baseline | Buying and selling on random days, as long in the market. |
| Placebo (shuffled prices) | The rule on prices shuffled into a random order. |
| Signal delay / look-ahead check | Every trade a day late. |
| Triple trading costs | Three times the trading costs. |
| Parameter neighbourhood | Slightly different settings. |
| Walk-forward, fold by fold | Settings fitted on earlier years, then run on the years after them. |
| Regime and sub-period stability | Each part of the test on its own. |
Reading the answer
The top line counts the attacks the result survived, and each row opens to show its numbers. Surviving every attack does not show that a rule will keep doing well; failing one is a reason to look harder.
What it costs
Prove it makes many test runs, so it costs more than one test. It shows its price before anything runs.
Where to find it
On a finished result in the Strategy Agent, and on My Strategies.
Related
- Feature guidesRunning Prove itHow to run Prove it on a result, what each attack does, and how to read its report, with a stored report as the example.
- Use caseCheck whether a result is luckPut a finished result through harder tests, and keep its latest months sealed, so a lucky past is easier to spot.
- Learn pathIs it luck?At the end you can say why a test that looks good can still be wrong, and set a rule to be watched from today on.
- Core conceptsThe sealed testWhen you first test an idea, Quantis sets its latest months aside. You open them once, when you have finished changing the rule.
These pages describe how Quantis Trade works and what its tests show about the past. They are not forecasts and not advice.